Super Bowl XLVIII

This Super Bowl match-up is very intriguing for several reason. The Seahawks had the leading defense in the NFL and the Broncos had the leading offense in the NFL. To be more specific, the Seahwaks had the leading pass-defense, allowing  172 yards a game. The Broncos had the leading passing attack, averaging 340 yards a game. The Seahawks allowed only 101 yards a game on the ground, good for 7th in the league, while Denver averaged 117 yards a game via the rush. With such a prolific offense facing a very experienced, and opportunistic defense, this game should be a great Super Bowl to watch.

So, what's going to give? Denver did not play a top-rated pass defense until week 16, when they faced a Houston Texans team that had long given up on the season. Seattle, however, twice played the second-rated passing New Orleans Saints, beating them both times, including once in the playoffs. Seattle only surrendered a total of 22 points to the Saints, but both games were played in Seattle where the Seahawks have an impressive home-field advantage. The only (reputable) team Seattle and Denver had in common was the Indianapolis Colts. Both teams played the Colts in Indianapolis, and they both lost... by six points.

Ultimately, I think the key to this game is what Denver can do on the ground, and what the Seahawks can do passing the ball. Denver has proven they can win games with just Peyton Manning's arm, but they have not faced a defense nearly as good as the 'Hawks. If Seattle can force the Broncos into only passing the ball, their secondary, which led the NFL with 28 interceptions, can key in on the pass and blanket Demaryius Thomas and co. What also may play into this game is the weather. With the SB being played in New Jersey, there is always a threat of poor weather, and that always hampers a pass-heavy offense (The Patriots beat the Broncos in a bad-weather game earlier this year because Peyton Manning could barely grip the ball). The possibility of this scenario underscores the need for an effective performance by Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball.

If Russell Wilson cannot move the ball effectively through the air, this game could end very quickly for Seattle. Marshawn Lynch is going to have a tough time with a good Denver run-defense, so Wilson needs to be successful in order to get his teammate going. Denver's pass-defense leaves something to be desired, and with the return of pro-bowl wide receiver Percy Harvin, Wilson will have an opportunity to exploit it. Harvin missed most of the season with a hip-injury, which will undoubtedly leave some rust, but he should have enough preparation time to return to full-strength. Even with Harvin, it is very difficult to judge how well Seattle will move the ball through the air.

When all is said and done, I think Peyton Manning is just too good, and has too much time to prepare for Seattle's "D". He has 3 very talented receivers and solid tight ends, and Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball should be able to alleviate some of the pressure on Manning. Of course, if weather is a factor, everything swings in Seattle's favor. With two teams that play completely different styles of football, it is always difficult giving an edge to one team over another, especially if you are trying to find common opponents. It makes it even more difficult when they both lose to that common opponent... by six points.  

Tanaka Transaction Proves Need for Salary Caps

Prior to the 2013-2014 Major League Baseball off-season, Yankees' owner's Hal and Hank Steinbrenner declared that they were going to try and get their team payroll below the luxury tax threshold of $189 million.  The luxury tax is used as a method of punishing large-market teams for spending excessive amounts of money and buying the best players so as to keep parity among the 30 MLB teams. For every season that a team exceeds the luxury tax threshold (which is determined in the Collective Bargaining Agreement between players and the league) their tax percentage increases. After 1 season it's 17.5%, after 2 seasons it's 30%, and it continues to increase until it hits 50% after 4 seasons of excessive spending. This system, since its institution in 2003, has curtailed exorbitant spending. Up to this point, only 5 teams have dared to exceed the limit, and most of the time it's a one season issue. The team pays the 17.5% tax and drops their payroll the next season to below the threshold. However, the New York Yankees have exceeded the luxury tax cut-off every single season since it was introduced.

The wealth of the Yankees since George Steinbrenner purchased the club in 1973 is no secret. Mr. Steinbrenner always had money to spend, and he spent it regardless of the penalties. This is a trait he clearly passed on to his sons. Despite Hank and Hal's words, they have, once again, obliterated the luxury tax. In fact, they stomped on it. The Yankees made 4 major acquisitions this off-season that will total more than $491 million dollars over the life of those 4 contracts alone. For the 2013 MLB season, the Yankees had a total team payroll of $228 million, well above the $189 million threshold, and with these new contracts, the Yankees will inevitably exceed the limit once again. The other team that seemly ignores the luxury tax is the Los Angeles Dodgers. For the 2013 season, the Dodgers had a team payroll of $216 million. Slightly less than the Yankees, but still considerably over the benchmark. Instead of cutting spending, the Dodgers have increased their payroll so that for the 2014 season it will approach $250 million. The Dodgers will pay 30% tax this season, while the Yankees will once again be slapped with a 50% tax bill. 

So what's the problem with this? The Yankees have only won 1 world series since the beginning of the luxury tax and the Dodgers haven't won since 1988. Small payroll teams, such as the Oakland Athletics ($60 million in 2013; 27th in MLB) and Tampa Bay Rays, ($57 million in 2013; 28th in MLB) have had a great deal of success during the luxury tax era, but then often-times struggle in the play-offs due to their lack of experienced players. These teams are forced to use home-grown, young players, who only stick around until they can sign a massive free-agent contract with the Bronx Bombers or Dodgers. This, understandably saps interest for the small-market teams. Who wants to go to a baseball game where your best player is virtually unknown outside city limits? Fans stop showing up to ball games because their teams are eliminated before the season even begins. 

Let's do a little case study. In 2001, the Cleveland Indians were 4th in MLB in total attendance, averaging nearly 40,000 fans per game. In 2013, same team, same stadium, they finished 28th in total attendance, averaging almost 20,000 fans per game. The 2013 Indians' team was highly successful, making the play-offs for the first time since 2007, but they were lacking a big-name player. Their best pitcher was former Boston Red Sox cast-off Justin Masterson, and their big-name position player, Jason Kipnis, is a home-grown 2nd baseman who, although talented, is not qualified as a major star. 

 The 2007 Cleveland team was filled with stars. By 2011, 6 of those players (CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Shin-Soo Choo, Casey Blake, Jhonny Peralta, and Victor Martinez) ended up in bigger-market cities (LA, Boston, Detroit, and New York) via trade or free-agency. Why did the Indians not retain any of them? They could not afford the amount of free agency money demanded.  In 2007, the Indians drew about 30,000 fans a game. They had league-leaders playing for them on the field. They had players that other teams wanted. Flash forward to 2014 and all those league-leaders are gone. The lack of a salary cap takes away fan excitement, and there is almost no chance for a small-market team (Miami, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Minnesota, Kansas City, Houston, etc.) to sustain any measure of success. 

Lastly, salary caps work. The NFL, NHL, and NBA all have salary caps, and they have proven that small market teams can have a great deal of success -- including winning championships -- something almost unheard of in baseball. Teams in Green Bay, New Orleans, Carolina, Oklahoma City, Seattle, Miami, Indianapolis, and Portland have a shot. In fact, some of those cities have extraordinarily successful franchises. Salary Caps do what they are supposed do. They keep a level of balance among all the teams in their given league. Every team has a chance to re-sign their favorite players during free-agency because there are no big-market teams who can offer any amount of money they wish. A salary cap will be difficult to come by in baseball, but with commissioner Bud Selig leaving in January 2015, and a new Players' Association head in Tony Clark, now is the time for a salary cap to be instituted.